GM David Kahn Off To Rocky Start In Minnesota

David Kahn began his term as the new GM of the Minnesota Timberwolves on the eve of the NBA Draft.  With a team consisting of one legitimate franchise player in Al Jefferson, nearly everybody else on the roster was up for trade.  Looking to rebuild through the draft, Kahn traded Randy Foye and Mike Miller to the Washington Wizards in exchange for some frontcourt depth with Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, Oleksiy Pecherov and above all the No. 5 overall pick in the 2009 NBA Draft.

Already holding the No. 6 pick this gave the Timberwolves two picks back-to-back with another at No. 18 and No. 28 later on in the first round coming their way.  Armed with four first round picks and a number of holes to fill Kahn entered the draft prepared to retool and reload his team with young talent.

As the first four picks in the draft came and went and in many teams’ eyes the top point guard prospect, Ricky Rubio, still on the board, nobody was surprised to see the Timberwolves pick him at No. 5.  The pick was viewed as a great selection that gave Minnesota a point guard of the future with a player many view as a prospect whose potential is immense and have led to comparisons to Pete Maravich.

With the No. 6 pick coming, many had Stephen Curry pegged here to round out a starting backcourt of the future to pair with their two studs in the frontcourt.  Personally, I thought Terrance Williams would have been a nice fit with his all-around skills, defensive capabilities, size and athleticism.  Kahn went in a puzzling direction to many by choosing to go with another point guard, this time take Jonny Flynn out of Syracuse.

Ricky Rubio may still be overseas when the upcoming NBA season kicks off

Ricky Rubio may still be overseas when the upcoming NBA season kicks off

The Nuggets traded their No. 18 pick for a future first round pick to the Denver Nuggers, a good move in a weak draft class and then took shooting guard, Wayne Ellington with the No. 28 overall pick in the first round.

Since the draft Kahn has been on record as saying he believes that a backcourt of Flynn and Rubio though unconventional could work.  Unfortunately, the argument holds little weight since the Wolves have yet to figure out how they are going to be able to get Rubio to Minnesota with the buyout currently in place with his contract with his current Spanish league club, DVK Joventut.

It’s puzzling that the T’Wolves would even have selected a player without having finalized a buyout from his contract, especially after drafting him with their top selection.  They then made a move to cover themselves by drafting Flynn in the event Rubio is not able to come over this season, a scenario which is looking increasingly likely.  The situation that faces them is what they plan on doing if Rubio does come over.

They cannot possibly start Rubio and Flynn together and neither will be happy coming off the bench to back-up the other.  With the trade of Foye and Miller, two of the team’s better scoring options, the T’Wolves could field one of the worst offenses this season in the NBA.

T’Wolves fans should hope that with up to potentially three picks in the first round next year, Kahn does a better job of evaluating his team’s personnel and needs.

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Adding Artest May Prove Risky as Lakers Look to Defend Title

After winning their 16th championship this past season, the Lakers had to make several key decisions this offseason.  With Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza both being unrestricted free agents and both seeking long-term contracts, GM Mitch Kupchak made a bold move.  Feeling that Ariza was not worth the full mid-level exception for five years as he wanted, Kupchak decided to extend the mid-level exception to free agent, Ron Artest.

Artest will need to learn how to play second fiddle next Kobe Bryant for the Lakers to defend their title successfully.

Artest will need to learn how to play second fiddle next Kobe Bryant for the Lakers to defend their title successfully.

Artest signed the deal and with Odom agreeing to a deal late last week, most experts and pundits viewed them as an improved team that stood as the clear championship favorites.  While the Lakers certainly are the favorites to repeat their championship run of last year, the exchange of Ariza, who signed with the Rockets, for Artest is at best a lateral move if not a downgrade.

Artest over the course of his career has a high usage rate on offense and often has demonstrated his tendency to break off plays, hold on to the ball and look for his own shot.  Looking at last year’s numbers, Ariza shot 46.o% from the field, whereas Artest shot 40.1%.

Artest did shoot significantly better than Ariza in the regular season hitting nearly 40% of his treys as compared to Ariza’s 31.1%, but come playoff time Ariza elevated his game hitting 47.6%, while Artest put up a horrific 27.7% from downtown.  Combine this with the fact that Artest shot 23-83 from three in 13 playoff games, whereas Ariza shot 40-84 in 23.  Artest at times can get caught up looking for his own shot and will force the issue even when he’s not on.

Ariza posted a lower usage rate, higher true shooting percentage and a higher effective field goal percentage for the season.  He found his niche moving without the ball, often into the corners when Kobe drove to the lane or cutting baseline to the hoop freeing himself for good scoring chances.  He also provided a couple of  late game steals for the Lakers that sealed victories over the Nuggets and Magic in the playoffs.  The Lakers also used Ariza to check the opposing team’s best wing player.

Whereas Ariza is 23 years old with a steadily improving all-around game, Artest finds himself at 29, declining athletically and becoming a less effective defensive player.  The other baggage Artest brings to L.A. with him is his history of strange behavior off the court.

Ron Artest is an absolute headcase.  He has certainly calmed down since his time in Indiana, most noted for his charge into the stands in Detroit, but there is not doubt that Artest remains a bit on the crazy side.  If you missed it, Bill Simmons of ESPN.com, in his most recent piece, discussed Artest’s tendency to walk around in his underwear on the team bus last year with the Rockets.

The Lakers may regret not signing Ariza, who was the perfect complementary player to Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol.

The Lakers may regret not signing Ariza, who was the perfect complementary player to Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol.

While this pattern of bizarre behavior is nothing new from Artest, most of the NBA talking heads have stated their belief that if Jackson could control Dennis Rodman in Chicago and get him to play effectively alongside Jordan and Pippen, then he can do the same with Artest in L.A.

The comparison between Rodman and Artest is limited strictly to bizarre behavior, but as basketball players the disparity in their styles of play is vast.  Rodman never needed or demanded the ball.  He knew his role as a rebounder and an excellent defender capable of checking the opposing team’s power forward and making effective rotations.

Artest while still a good defender is nowhere near the elite level he was at during his time in Indiana.  Artest offensively is not effective moving without the ball, something he will need to improve working alongside Kobe Bryant.  He must also stick to the triangle offense, which demands a player read and react the situation and encourages ball movement.

The Lakers still remain the favorites to win their second consecutive championship and adding Artest could be a move that does reap benefits for them.  For that to happen Artest must buy into the triangle offense and learn to defer to both Bryant and Gasol offensively before looking for his shot.  Phil Jackson will certainly have his hands full, incorporating Artest into the Lakers’ game plans for next year.

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Washington Wizards: The Eastern Conference Sleeper

As we all know the Cavaliers, Magic and Celtics are going to start the season off as serious title contenders in the Eastern Conference.  Are there any teams in the East that have the potential to disrupt the three main powers?

I’m not talking about a team that can sneak into the playoffs, or win a playoff series, but a team that has the potential to beat one or even two of these teams in a playoff series.  I’m not telling you that the Washington Wizards are a championship contender, but looking at their roster it’s obvious that if they can put it all togther, with their talent, they will be a force to reckoned with.

Gilbert Arenas needs to get the hibachi grill going for the Wizards to be successful this year.

Gilbert Arenas needs to get the hibachi grill going for the Wizards to be successful this year.

The Wizards are an awful defensive team, which they compound by not putting in any effort on that end of the floor.  The team lacks an interior presence on both defense and on offense.  Their offense relies too much on hitting shots from the perimeter and they have almost an over abundance of wing scorers.  The Wizards won 19 games last year and finished last in the Eastern Conference, but in many ways this year’s team barely resembles last year’s injurry riddled squad.

When discussing health and playing together as a team, it all starts with their Big Three, specifically Gilbert Arenas.  Agent Zero’s prolonged injury-related absences has been tough for the Wizards, but word is that Gilbert’s been a gym rat this offseason and can’t wait to get back on the court.  Arenas cannot be guarded by other guards around the league because of his ability to hit jump shots even under duress and his size, strength and agility make him unstoppable when he drives to the rim.

Arenas’ main flaw is that he often fails to fulfill his primary duties as a point guard.  He doesn’t need to average double digit assists, but the Wizards must hope that Arenas has matured and will do a better job of facilitating the offense.  Arenas, now entering his ninth year in the league, must learn to get the other players on the team going in addition to looking for his own shot.  Flip Saunders will give him the freedom to run his read and react offense and if Arenas can handle those duties, the Wizards offense will be better than before.

Antawn Jamison is now 33 years old, but is coming off one of his best seasons, averaging 22.2points and 8.9 rebounds a game.  The third member of their Big Three, Caron Butler also had a solid year, but missed 15 games because of injury. Both players can get out in transition, handle the ball and have the ability to score from the perimeter and drive to the hoop.  While Jamison has the ability to play both forward spots and score inside with an advanced post game, Butler has become better at creating for teammates in Arenas’ absence the past two seasons.

If Butler and Jamison put up the same numbers as last year and Gilbert can return back to his peak hibachi form with an added ability to facilitate the offense, this team should be able to easily get in to the playoffs.  However, it’s the depth beyond these three that the Wizards now possess that make them such an intriguing and dangerous team.

The Wizards are now the most explosive team in the league.  On any given night outside of their Big Three, they have five other players that can help shoulder the offensive load.  Nick Young, Randy Foye and Mike Miller, can make their backcourt absolutely lethal.  Young has shown glimpses of his potential and with coach Flip Saunders’ decision to use him like he did Rip Hamilton in Detroit, Young can be absolutely deadly with his excellent mid-range game.

Mike Miller gives the Wizard another offensive weapon with his ability to play the point and spread the floor.

Mike Miller gives the Wizard another offensive weapon with his ability to play the point and spread the floor.

Foye and Miller came over from Minnesota in a trade for the No. 5 overall pick.  While the Wizards may be kicking themselves with Ricky Rubio dropping down to that spot, they certainly made out well.  Foye is a Gilbert-lite in many ways.  He is too big and strong for most opposing point guards and is difficult to keep out of the lane.  Foye will be explosive for the Wizards with his ability to play both backcourt positions coming off the bench.

Miller is deadly from beyond the arc and with the number of slashers that the Wizards have, he could benefit immenselyon drive and kick opportunities.  Miller also has the ability to play some point, which he did effectively in time with Memphis.

He is an excellent ball handler for wing player his size and his length and size allow him to see and make some passes most point guards struggle with.  While he can’t play their for an extended period of time due to his lack of lateral quickness, Miller could form an effective backcourt pairing with Arenas, splitting the point guard duties with him and allowing Arenas to operate as the shooting guard at times.

Andray Blatche is a 6′11power forward/center, with the ability to handle the ball and an advanced perimeter game for a big man his size.  Still only 22 years old, Blatche is still developing his game.  If he can bulk up a bit and operate a little bit more in the post, Blatche can provide match-up nightmares for opposing teams with his ability to draw the other team’s big men out to the perimeter and opening up the paint.

Javale McGee has the potential to be an absolute star in the NBA.  Like Blatche, he has shown the ability to operate from the perimeter, but McGee has far more advanced skills operating inside.  With his 7′6 wingspan he can be an extremely disruptive force defensively as well becoming an elite rebounder, which he did both of to great affect in summer league.  McGee is also extremely athletic and runs the floor very well for big man his size.

Javale McGee can be a force on the interior on both the defensive and offensive ends of the floor.

Javale McGee can be a force on the interior on both the defensive and offensive ends of the floor.

During summer league it was clear McGee had filled out his frame more over the summer and had put time into his post game.  While summer league is never a clear indication, it looks like McGee will certainly be a key contributor for the Wizards during the upcoming season.

The Wizards will also be getting Brendan Haywood back to solidify their frontcourt rotation and give the Wizards some kind of defensive presence inside.  Defense will ultimately determine how far this team goes.  Washington will not struggle to put points up on the board, but they need to commit to playing defense.

The Wizards don’t need to become one of the league’s elite defensive units, but they need to at least be average, which requires little else but effort.  If Saunders can get his team to put in the effort defensively, the Wizards should be able to easily wrap-up the No. 4 seed in the East.

There are two things any NBA team needs to be successful in today’s league, the ability to create match-up problems and versatile players who can play multiple positions.  The Wizards have both of these qualities.  Imagine a lineup of Miller, Arenas, Butler, Jamison and Mcgee.  All five players have the ability to put the ball on the floor and Miller, Arenas, Butler and Jamison can spread the floor effectively to create opportunities to drive or throw or throw it down low to McGee.

They can score in the halfcourt and also in transition equally as well.  Their size and length can create nightmares on the defensive end as well if they can commit.  The Wizards are certainly a work in progress, but they simply have too much talent to overlook.  With their talent level, skill, depth and roster versatility the Wizards could be poised to compete with the Eastern Conference powerhouses come playoff time.

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The Eastern Conference Contenders

As the free agency period winds down, the contenders in the Eastern Conference remain much the same from last year.  There are a litter of teams in the East vying for the last playoff spots, but Cleveland, Orlando and Boston remain the favorites to come out of the East.  Let’s take a closer look at the moves these teams made during this offseason:

Boston Celtics:  2nd in the East, 62-20 record, eliminated in Eastern Conference Semi-Finals by the Orlando Magic

The Returning Players: The Celtics entered the offseason needing to address their depth after suffering injuries to numerous players last year, including Kevin Garnett.  The Celtics were able to survive a seven game thriller in the opening round against the Bulls and pushed the eventual Eastern Conference champions, Orlando Magic, to seven games in the conference semi-final.

Part of Boston’s ability to play tough in the playoffs came from Rajon Rondo’s emergence as a budding star point guard.  Rondo gives Boston a player, who can push the ball in transition, has no fear of contact and can finish in the paint.  Rondo’s speed and quickness puts constant pressure on the defense, he is an effective passer and a great rebounder for his size.  Rondo gives the Celtics an explosive dynamic that they lack and he emerged last year to make the Big Three into a Big Four.

The Celtics need to worry about Pierce, Allen and Garnett as they continue to age.  Pierce is 31, Allen, 34, and Garnett, 33.  This could be the beginning of the decline for the Celtics with aging veterans who started to show their age.  Allen was lights out in the first round series against the Bulls after his Game 1 debacle, but against Orlando Allen looked shot.  34 year-old jump shooters tend to break down and the Celtics would be smart to look for a solid backup that could reduce Allen’s minutes and step-in for a few games if Allen were to get hurt.

Pierce carried the Celtics through the regular season after Garnett was ruled out for the season.  Come playoff time however and it was a mixed bag of results for Pierce who looked fatigued and worn out at times.  He had his moments hitting a number of big baskets at the end of games, but he did not look like the player that was the 2008 Finals MVP.  If the Celtics can stay healthy, a big if, and Pierce doesn’t have to shoulder any extra load, he should be fresh come playoff time.  Out of their three aging superstars, Pierce certainly has the most game left.

Garnett’s recurring knee problems are the sign many big men face as their careers begin to decline.  Garnett should still be a very effective player, but the Celtics will need to reduce his minutes to keep him injury free and available for the playoffs.  In this vein I found some of the Celtics’ moves in addressing frontcourt depth, which was thin last year after Garnett and Leon Powe went down with injuries.

Offseason Moves: With an aging group of superstars, GM Danny Ainge needed to inject youth into the roster to provide relief and depth to guard against injuries.  The Celtics big move this offseason was to sign Rasheed Wallace to a two year deal for the full mid-level exception.  Wallace should be motivated more than he was in Detroit and gives the Celtics another veteran with playoff experience.  Wallace can hit shots from the perimeter as well as post up and is an excellent low post defender, for a team that already has Garnett and Kendrick Perkins guarding the rim.

Wallace will see time at both frontcourt positions, but after him there is very little the Celtics have up front.  The Celtics have extended the qualifying offer from Glen Davis, but rumors have Davis going elsewhere.  The Celtics may look to sign and trade him in order to get something back, but Davis was solid for the Celtics in the postseason and will be a loss for them.

In addition the Celtics let go of Leon Powe and Mikki Moore.  Powe is certainly a loss for the Celtics, but they chose not to re-sign him after he suffered an ACL injury that could keep him out for the majority of this season.  With free agency winding down, the Celtics still need to adress a need for a big combo guard that can guard 2’s, that can come in with Eddie House off the bench.

Other than that the Celtics will be looking for someone like J.R. Giddens, Bill Walker or Gabe Pruitt to emerge and begin contributing.  Ainge also is expected to sign Robert Swift, who he has had his eye since he entered the league.

X-Factors: J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker – They are bothe xtremely athletic wing players that could help the Celtics by providing a spark off the bench.  If these two can put in the work this offseason they both have NBA ability and skills to help the Celtics.

Outlook: With the addition of Wallace, a full recovery from Garnett, rest for Pierce and Allen and the continued development of Rondo, the Celtics will certainly challenge for the NBA title next year.  Their weakness continues to remain their depth, which Ainge will have to address through the remaining free agents on the market or via trade.

Expected Record: 61-21, 2nd in the East, eliminated in Eastern Conference Semi-Final by the Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic: 3rd in the East, 59-23 record, eliminated in the NBA Finals by the Los Angeles Lakers

The Returning Players: After making it to the NBA Finals with Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu and an array of long range bombers the Magic revamped their roster and will be throwing out more conventional lineups next year.

Dwight Howard remains the centerpiece of the team.  Howard has evolved into the most dominant big man in the game, muscling his way to the hoop.  Howard is athletic enough to run and finish in the open floor and is a dominant force in the middle for Orlando.  If Howard wants to become one of the great centers he needs to continue to refine his post game and add more post moves.  He also needs to do a better job of shielding the ball and become better at going right up with the ball when he receives it rolling to the hoop.

Rashard Lewis also returns serving as one of the shooters who stretches the floor for the Magic.  Lewis disappeared in the Finals and if the Magic want to make a repeat performance, they will need Lewis to be more consistent throughout the playoffs.  Though undersized, Lewis played defense well enough against opposing power forwards throughout the regular season and playoffs.

Jameer Nelson also returns back from a torn shoulder and he should be back to full health when the season starts.  Nelson was an All-Star last year before he was injured and the Magic will be looking for him to get back to that  level.  Nelson is a much better passer than departed point guard Rafer Alston and also a more consistent shooter as well.

Michael Pietrus will also be back in his role off the bench for the Magic, where he excelled in the playoffs, particularly against Cleveland.  Pietrus is a good on the ball defender who has the ability to harass elite wing players like Lebron James and Kobe Bryant effectively.

The Magic will also have Marcin Gortat back after matching Dallas’ offer sheet for him.  Gortat was one of the best backup centers in the league last year and his presence would have been missed by the Magic.  His defensive play is very good, with his ability to block shots and he is also solid at finishing around the hoop when he gets the ball on offense.  If nothing else Orlando will be able to use Gortat as a valuable trade chip for teams looking for big men to protect the hoop.

Offseason Moves: The Magic simply could have re-signed Hedo Turkoglu and Gortat and their offseason would have been considered a success.  However, GM Otis Smith was not content with a roster that made it to the NBA Finals last year and went about retooling it.

On draft day, Orlando sent Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston and Tony Battie to the New Jersey Nets for Vince Carter and Ryan Andersen.  I am on record with my doubts about this trade, but the Magic certainly win on talent alone.  Carter gives them a player that can create his shot as well as for others and can take over end of game shooting duties from the departed Turkoglu.  If Carter can play within the flow of the offense instead of excercising his penchant for holding the ball, he will provide a boost for the Magic offensively.

Andersen is a nice young player, who should find some minutes for himself in Orlando’s frontcourt rotation.  Andersen can stretch the floor for the Magic with his ability to hit from the perimeter, something very critical in the Magic’s offensive game plan.

The other big acquisition the Magic made was to sign forward Brandon Bass to a deal.  Bass is a rugged, athletic forward, who has a decent post game and a solid mid-range jumper.  He will certainly help the Magic on the glass where they needed help.  After struggling to match-up in the Finals with the Lakers’ frontcourt, the Magic needed to add depth and versatility which did in signing Bass.

Matt Barnes was also signed and gives Orlando another versatile player, who can play on the wing, or in a small ball lineup, can play power forward.  Barnes is long and athletic and can hit a decent clip from long-range.  Barnes is a decent ball handler and is a willing defender.  Barnes was another solid addition to the roster and gives the Magic a lot of depth.

X-Factor: Mickael Pietrus – Pietrus’ emergence in the Eastern Conference Finals, gave the Magic the added punch off the bench they needed to advance past the Cavaliers.  If Pietrus can stay helthy and again be the spark plug for Orlando, the Magic will have a good shot at advancing to the Finals again.

Outlook: The Magic added a lot of bench depth and versatility to the roster.  Carter gives them another bonafide scorer and creator, while Howard’s continued development will also help the team.  If Stan Van Gundy can mix and match all the new parts this team will be as dangerous as any team.

I do worry about the Magic becoming a more conventional halfcourt team and not being able to spread the floor as effectively.  This could limit Howard’s effectiveness and make it easier to send double teams his way.  Look for the Magic to get off to a slow a start with a number of new players finding their roles and then flourishing midway through the season.

Expected Record: 58-24, 3rd in the East, eliminated in Eastern Conference Finals by the Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers: 1st in the East, 66-16 record, eliminated in Eastern Conference Finals by the Orlando Mgic

The Returning Players: The Cavaliers did a good job of keeping their core together this offseason.  They were able to re-sign Anderson Varejao to a 6-year, $50 million deal.  Varejao is effective at moving off the ball and is also a willign defender.  If he can make his jumper more consistent that can help the Cavs.

Lebron James is clearly the key to this team.  Without him the Cavaliers would become one of the worst teams in the league immediately.  James needs to improve his shot from outside, but more importantly needs to refine his post-up game.  With his size, strength and speed, if James can develop a drop step and a fadeaway, he will truly become unstoppable in the post.  Expect to see Lebron get more minutes at power forward this season as well, as the Cavaliers should experiment more with small ball.

Other than that the Cavaliers have a solid supporting cast, with Mo Williams, Delonte West and Zydrunas Ilgauskas all capable of taking advantage of the opportunities that James provides them on offense.  West is a very strong on the ball defender and constantly harasses opponents.  Mo Williams will need to step up in the playoffs after he capped it off with an awful performance in their series against the Magic.  Ilgauskas is aging, but he is still effective on the pick and pop with James.

Offseason Moves: After being exposed by the Magic for their overall lack of athleticism and inability to defend Dwight Howard, the Cavaliers went into the offseason ready to make moves.  They started off with a big one, trading Sasha Pavlovic, Ben Wallace and a second round pick to Phoenix for Shaquille O’Neal.  You can’t question the move too much as the Cavaliers traded away little to get a player of Shaq’s caliber, but at his age it’ll be interesting to see how much he can help.

Shaq certainly gives the Cavs a presence inside, but the Magic were able to abuse the Cavaliers by utilizing the high pick and roll with Howard.  Shaq has struggled his entire career to defend that very same play and at 37 years old it’s unlikely he’ll be getting better at it.  Shaq however does give them a primary option when James is sitting, which they have lacked in the past.

The only problem is that a Shaq pairing with either Varejao or Ilgauskas is doomed to failure, so look for him to be sharing time in the frontcourt with Lebron James, J.J. Hickson and the Cavs’ other free agent signing, Jemario Moon.

Moon is a hyper-athletic player, who can give them minutes at both forward positions.  Moon is a great finisher on the fast break and should benefit from playing alongside James.  Moon is also a decent three point shooter, hitting 35% for his career from downtown.

The Cavs also added free agent guard Anthony Parker.  Parker is an excellent defensive player on the wing and will be able to switch onto the opposing team’s best perimeter player, which should help both Mo Williams and Lebron.  Parker also is not a player that demands the ball, but he is proficient from deep and shoots %41.5 from downtown for his career.  Parker gives Cleveland more depth in the backcourt and he also has the ability to play small forwars as well.

X-Factor: Shaquille O’Neal – If he can be comfortable with playing limited minutes and not be the focal point of the offense Shaq can help this team.  Even in last years in the league, Shaq is still a force in the paint and his ability to check Dwight Howard may well determine this team’s fate.

Outlook: The Cavaliers certainly added a number of new pieces, much like the Magic.  However both Parker and Moon should have no problem stepping right into the rotation and fitting in.  If coach Mike Brown can solidify a frontcourt rotation between Shaq, Ilgauskas, Varejao and Hickson then the Cavaliers will be in good shape.

The Cavaliers had more than their fair share of opportunities against the Magic, but their role players need to step up and make shots when they need too.  Shaq should help instill a winning mindset with this team and if Lebron can take another step in his game, the Cavaliers have enough to compete against any team in the league.

Expected Record: 63-19, 1st in the East, Eastern Conference Champions

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Pritchard Completes Failed Offseason

Kevin Pritchard, sealed a failed offseason for the Portland Trailblazers on Friday by signing 33 year old point guard, Andre Miller to a 3-year, $21 million contract with the third year being a team option.  Portland has needed a pass first point guard, but Miller doesn’t seem to be a great fit in the long-term for the Blazers.

Miller is a much better creator and distributor than Blake and Kevin Pelton of BasketballProspectus.com had him ranked as the second best offensive free agent.  As Pelton notes, while Miller will certainly give the Blazers more versatility with his ability to create in addition to Roy’s, his lack of shooting ability will hurt the Blazers when Roy has the ball.  Teams will be able to collapse in on the Blazers and make it more difficult for them to space the floor effectively.

The Blazers would also have been better served looking for a guard who could stick with the league’s increasing amount of speedy, young points.  The Blazers would have been well served in taking a look at C.J. Watson from the Golden State Warriors.

Watson is only 25 and is a decent defender with a knack for getting in the passing lanes, averaging 1.25 steals in only 24 minutes per game last season.  Watson is also a good shooter from distance, hitting 40 percent from downtown last year.  With his improving point guard skills, Watson would have been a nice addition that the Blazers could have gotten for a cheap price.

Andre Miller adds to the Blazers a veteran with playoff experience, but the value of this to the Blazers remains a mystery.  Portland gained experience last year in their series against the Rocket, which should only help them as they go into next year.  With such a young team, it is expected that they will be better next year as their players continue to develop.  With the addition of Miller, Portland has certainly improved, but the difference may be much less significant than they expect.

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GM Kevin Pritchard Falters After Rebuilding Blazers

GM Kevin Pritchard of the Portland Trailblazers has received much praise for his quick turnaround of a team that 5 years back was maligned around the league.  The “Jailblazers”, as they were known then, lacked cohesion as a team, had a roster full of headcases and felons and had little to no support from their fanbase.  Since then Pritchard has turned Portland’s roster into the envy of every team looking for a way back to the top of the league.

GM Kevin Pritchard has made some puzzling moves in the offseason

GM Kevin Pritchard has made some puzzling moves in the offseason

Armed with owner Paul Allen’s Microsoft billions Pritchard bought and traded for 1st round picks from desperate teams.  Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless, Travis Outlaw, Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster and this year’s first round pick, Victor Claver, make-up a young nucleus that won 54 games last season.  Many NBA analysts have hailed the Blazers as a franchise not just heading in the right direction, but one primed to win championships in years to come.

The Blazers, while promising and talented, were certainly not perfect and Pritchard went out with the goal this offseason to change that.  Portland has been active in trying to find a point guard that can take this team to the next level.  They attempted to trade for Jason Kidd from New Jersey two seasons ago at the trade deadline, but were trumped by an offer from Dallas.

While the point guard spot remained their biggest need entering this offseason, Pritchard made waves early in free agency by courting Hedo Turkoglu.  This affair culminated with Turkoglu agreeing in principle to a 5-year, $50 million contract only to change his mind in the eleventh hour and instead sign a 5-year, $53 million offer from Toronto.

The courtship of Turkoglu was puzzling to many because the Blazers already had Fernandez, Batum and Outlaw capable of playing the small forward position.  Adding Turkoglu would have created a logjam at a position that the Blazers did not need an upgrade at and would have stunted the development of their young players.

At the very least the signing of Turkoglu made sense in that he would give them a veteran presence, with playoff experience, coming off of a phenomenal performance in the playoffs with the Orlando Magic.  After they lost out on the Turkoglu sweepstakes, Portland in another puzzling move signed power forward Paul Millsap to a 4-year, $32 million offer sheet.  The offer was matched by the Jazz, while questions were raised about the direction the Blazers were taking.

The Blazers needed to add depth in the frontcourt at the power forward position behind Aldridge, but not at the price tag that Millsap came at.  What is even more puzzling is that Aldridge will be looking for an extension soon as he will be a restricted free agent next summer, which would have tied up serious cap space at one position for the Blazers.

Pritchard seemed to have got caught up in the big names available on the free agent market, rather than addressing the Blazers’ need at point guard.  The latest rumors have Portland engaged in talks with Andre Miller, but the 33 year-old is not a long-term answer, merely a stop gap.

The Blazers would be better served to go after Ramon Sessions, the 23 year-old point guard from Milwaukee.  Sessions would provide them with the heady, pass-first point guard they need to complement their talented roster.  Sessions can be had for less than Miller and would be a prime candidate to develop alongside the rest of the Blazers’ young nucleus.

The Blazers also have to negotiate an extension with Brandon Roy, who like Aldridge will be a restricted free agent next summer.  The Blazers and Roy’s agent have been negotiating the terms of an extension during the course of this summer.

It was expected that negotiations between Roy and the Blazers would be swift with Roy getting a max-contract extension.  Roy however didn’t seem too happy about the situation when interviewed about the topic earlier this summer on Radio KJR.

How are the negotiations going?

Sometimes things may not go the way you want one day, and you may get better news the next.  You know, my biggest thing is just staying patient, and knowing that I came in to this league and I’ve done everything I possibly could to get, I feel, a maximum contract.  So, I just kind of have to wait and hope something comes through.

Do you think an extension will be signed this summer?

Umm, it’s hard to say.  There’s days I feel good that something will get done, and then there’s days, you know, this might not happen.  For me, it’s 50/50 right now.  I would love for it to get done, because even when I was recruiting for college, I just wanted it to get done so I could start preparing for that school.  That’s kind of the position I’m in right now – I would love to just get it over with so that way we can move forward, and I can be more involved with free agents and things like that.

How much of a role are you playing in getting free agents to come to Portland?

Right now, I’m not playing much of any role (laughs).  It’s kind of hard for me to go out and recruit Hedo Turkoglu for five years when I only got one year guaranteed on my deal left.  Right now, my focus is mainly on, How can I secure my future?  At the end of the day, this is a business but that is something I would like to be more a part of, but it’s just hard because there is a conflict of interests there.  I would love for another really good player to come to Portland – I think we have a really great team – but, again, LaMarcus (Aldridge) has his contract situation that he’s waiting to get resolved.  It’s just really hard for us to go out and recruit when our situation isn’t really, I feel, even close to getting done.

The Blazers still need to re-sign Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge to extensions

The Blazers still need to re-sign Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge to extensions

Brandon Roy is a franchise player and the Blazers should be ready to pony up the money and pay him like one.  Roy has developed into one of the best scorers in the game and he has also become the leader in the Blazers’ locker room.  If the Blazers are trying to play hardball with a player of his caliber, they are not giving him the security he needs and expects.

Roy also mentions in that interview that he would love for the Blazers to acquire another great player, but with him and Aldridge waiting on extensions they cannot recruit players to Portland.  In effect through some puzzling moves this offseason Pritchard has sowed some seeds of dissatisfaction within his team.

Pritchard did an incredible job in putting this team together with young, talented players, while keeping the Blazers’ cap flexibility so they could be players in the free agent market this summer.  The Blazers are in prime position to take the next step to challenge the Lakers in the Western Conference, but Pritchard has faltered so far with the team requiring only a few final touches to become a legitimate championship contender.

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The NBA Fix

The-Basketball-Fix

Tim Donaghy was a lone rogue official working by himself, or at least that’s what the NBA and David Stern would like for you to believe.  Is anyone really buying that story?

Let’s rewind back to the 1998 NBA Finals, Game 6 in Salt Lake City.  With the Bulls down 85-86 and Karl Malone with the ball, MJ comes from Malone’s blind side and swipes the ball from him.  Jordan dribbles the ball up the court taking the ball to the wing and then takes two dribbles to his right.  With his off hand, Jordan pushes Russell off, then nails the jumper we’ve all seen a million times to win the game for the Bulls.  Game. Series. Championship.

Many have said Jordan pushed off and it should have been a foul call, but that’s the kind of play where you can understand the no-call.  The fact of the matter is Jazz fans should be more upset by two plays that took place earlier.

Looking at this video there are clearly two aggregious calls that went a long way in deciding the game.  Eisley’s three was nearly five feet out of his hand, before the shot clock buzzer’s went off and the referee had already waved it off.  The second one is almost bad with the ball clearly still in Ron Harper’s hand as the shot clock expires.

These calls however, do little to truly suggest any kind of league-wide conspiracy of favoring certain, players and teams.  Enter Tim Donaghy and open up the book for all the allegations of referee impropriety that are constantly brought up by players, fans and coaches alike, particularly during the playoffs.

Let’s start with a couple of facts:

Fact 1: Donaghy admitted to federal investigators about betting on games he officiated or passing on information to gamblers between October 2006 and April 2007.

Fact 2: Donaghy placed 134 phone calls to official Scott Foster that lasted no more than two minutes and occurred before and after games Donaghy officiated and on which he admits wagering.

Referee Scott Foster received 134 phone from Donaghy before and after games Donaghy officiated.  Not suspicious right?

Referee Scott Foster received 134 phone from Donaghy before and after games Donaghy officiated. Not suspicious right?

So the logical conclusion here is that no other officials were involved in gambling or betting on NBA games, right?  Well if you are David Stern and the NBA that’s what you would want for people to believe and with the help of their buddies over at ESPN that’s what has happened so far.

ESPN has major money tied up in NBA telecasting contracts and therefor has a vested interest in protecting the image of the league which is why it’s coverage in the wake of this information was so sparse and one-sided.

In the two articles they dedicated to the Scott Foster issue, the first is about Foster’s eagerness to tell his side of the story and how he is struggling with the knowledge of Donaghy’s admissions after knowing him for 17 years.  In the second we hear about how Foster believes that if refs could talk to the media the NBA conspiracy theories would die out.

Do these articles even qualify as pieces of investigative journalism?  You’re telling me that if you could interview Scott Foster you wouldn’t even question him about the nature of his relationship with Donaghy and why Donaghy called him immediately before and after games?

Then there’s this from RJ Bell at Pregame.com:

During the 2006-07 period under investigation, seven games refereed by Scott Foster had lopsided enough betting on one team to move the point spread by at least 2 points; those seven teams were undefeated against Vegas – meaning that the big-money gamblers won a 7 of 7 times on Foster’s games; the odds of that happening randomly are less than 1%.

Statistics alone cannot convict, but it’s certainly noteworthy that seven times in Foster’s games one team was bet extremely heavily, and all seven times that team won,” said RJ Bell of Pregame.com.

Two of those seven games stand out:

On January 19, 2007 the Kings opened as a 1.5 favorites at Boston; betting on Sacramento moved the line to -4.5. Kings won by 5, shooting 25 free throws, versus only 14 free throws for the home team Celtics. On March 20, 2007 the Nuggets opened as 2.5 point underdogs at New Jersey. Denver was bet so heavily, they closed as 1 point favorites. Denver won by 4, shooting 32 free throws versus only 22 for the home team Nets.

In prior reporting widely carried by the national media, RJ Bell of Pregame.com uncovered that big-money bettors won 15 straight lopsidedly bet games refereed by Tim Donaghy during the 2006-2007 season.

Inside the numbers of this study: Teams bet in a disproportionate fashion typically win only around 50% against the Las Vegas line. Wins and losses determined against the opening number. The time frame considered: Opening Day 2006 through March 31, 2007.

So with all that going on the FBI cleared referee Scott Foster of any wrongdoing, David Stern claimed unequivocally that Donaghy acted alone and was simply a roogue official and NBA referees are off the hook.  Can you imagine if baseball umpires were found to be gambling on games?  With this plethora of evidence suggesting that at the least that Foster was also involved, the nation’s media has gone deathly quiet on such an explosive issue.

The reality is that the NBA has knowledge of referees gambling on games and has effectively done nothing about it other than to hush it up, allowing Scott Foster to continue to officiate games.  Another reality is that NBA directs referees to officiate certain games in order to ensure the outcome that they desire

Donaghy in interviewing with government and FBI officials outlined a number of other cases of suspicious officiating.

One of the games discussed how referees were instructed by NBA officials to to extend a series.  The series was Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals between the Kings and the Lakers.  This is a game that in its immediate aftermath received much scrutiny due to horrendous calls in the fourth quarter that led to the Lakers taking an astonishing 27 free throws in that period to the Kings’ 9.

Most of the calls were bogus as the officiating took center stage in the deciding quarter of game 6 and ultimately the series.  Both Vlade Divac and Scott Pollard fouled out with nearly 3 minutes left in the quarter after being whistled for a number of fouls that at second glance appear to be nothing more than playing defense.  The worst call of the night was the one assigned to Mike Bibby after Kobe Bryant elbowed him in the face.
Mike Bibby was called for the foul after Kobe Bryant elbowed him in the nose during the fourth quarter's final seconds in Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals

Mike Bibby was called for the foul after Kobe Bryant elbowed him in the nose during the fourth quarter's final seconds in Game 6 of the 2002 Western Conference Finals

In addition to foul calls there are a number of calls the referees did not make.  In the fourth quarter, Shaq made an inordinate amount of free throws than normal.  Of the 17 free throws he took, O’Neal made 13 of them.  What is clear looking back at the video is that on every single one, Shaq committed a lane violation by stepping over the line on each one before the ball had hit the rim (fast forward to 6:03 in the video).  Not one lane violation was called on Shaq.

The second case mentioned by Donaghy outlines how Yao Ming was targeted after Mark Cuban complained about Yao Ming setting illegal screens in a 2005 first round series between the Mavericks and Rockets.  The Rockets were up 2-0, winning the first two games on the road and subsequently lost the series 4-3.

Jeff Van Gundy, the Rockets head coach at the time, claimed that a league official told him the referees were going to target Yao Ming.  When pushed, Van Gundy refused to give up his source, the NBA fined him $100,000 and they launched a probe to find out who the league official was to cover themselves from being complicit in knowledge of this.

There are a number of other examples of suspicious officiating including an incident in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semi-finals between the New York Knicks and the Miami Heat.  Bennett Salvatore gave a timeout to Latrell Sprewell of the Knicks after he came up with a rebound and the Knicks up 83-82.  Sprewell said after the game he had not called timeout and said he thought Marcus Camby had, while Chris Childs claimed he had called timeout.

That’s a lot of confusion which is compounded by the fact that Dick Bavetta talked it over with Salvatore and both concluded that somebody on the Knicks had called a timeout, though neither could pinpoint who had.  Following the game Miami Heat guard, Tim Hardaway claimed that now, “I see why they call Dick Bavetta ‘Knick’ Bavetta”.  Salvatore and Bavetta also worked Game 6 in the infamous Kings-Lakers series.

Referee Bennett Salvatore has officiated NBA games of dubious distinction like Game 5 of the 2006 NBA Finals.

Referee Bennett Salvatore has officiated NBA games of dubious distinction like Game 5 of the 2006 NBA Finals.

Salvatore was also involved in Game 5 of the Mavericks-Heat 2006 Finals series in which Dwayne Wade received every call imaginable anytime a Mavericks defender was within a foot of him. The game is best rememeberd for a call on Dirk Nowitzki in the final seconds that gave Wade free that gave the Heat the lead in the game which they would eventually go on to win.  Replays showed that there was little to no contact at all on the play.

There are various other cases of curious officiating that can easily be found, but we have been duped into accepting that the referees have been cleared of wrongdoing and the whole matter swept under the rug.  As fans there’s little we can do other than to voice our displeasure and not by a ticket, but without any media scrutiny having been given to a matter ripe to exposed we are left with the very same referees continuing to be fixtures in the NBA.

This much is certain is the fix has been in on a number of NBA games with league approval.  Without any further independent investigation into the matter we still are left with a sick feeling that league attempts to win the ratings war are more important than giving fans what they want.  Players and teams deciding games on the floor, rather than referees deciding them with a whistle and the unquestioned support of the league.

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Teams Pay the Price for Poor Financial and Personnel Decisions

Looking at free agency this summer and how it is playing out, it is clear the economic recession has certainly affected the way that teams are spending money.  It is becoming harder to players to cash in with teams reluctant to spend loads of money at a time when their own financial situations are shaky at best.

The most overlooked aspect of this is how teams are being put in difficult situations regarding signing free agents or re-signing their own players because of their own indescretion in overpaying and overspending for players.

Case in point, the Utah Jazz.  They desperately want to keep Paul Millsap, but need to move Carlos Boozer and his $12.7 million salary.  Ideally the Jazz could keep both players which would give them a considerable amount of offensive firepower in their frontcourt with Boozer, Millsap and Okur.

However, with Portland offering Millsap a 4-year, $32 million contract and $5.8 million signing bonus, the Jazz don’t want to lose a promising, young power forward, but are financially strapped and need to find a taker for Boozer.

The deal that really has put them in this situation however is the contract that they extended to Andrei Kirilenko in 2004.  The extension was a 6-year, $86 million offer and tied up Kirilenko until the summer of 2011.  Since the 06-07 season, Kirilenko’s play has been much less impressive and he has struggled to become a key cog in an offense that features more versatile scorers like Boozer, Okur, Deron Williams and Millsap.

The Jazz tried to trade him following the 06-07 NBA season to no avail and eventually came to an understanding welcoming Kirilenko back.  The problem here isn’t that they extended Kirilenko, but they failed to recognize that part of the reason he was a stat stuffing machine was the lack of talent on the Jazz teams Kirilenko was previously a part of.  Now the cash strapped Jazz are in a position of either losing Millsap or Boozer, something that could have been avoided if they had been more cautious in their dealings with AK47.

Another case in point is the NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers.  Sure they signed Ron Artest this summer for the mid-level exception, but they are in danger of losing Lamar Odom.  Most media outlets have been questioning Odom and saying he should go back to the team, rather than worry about the length and value of his contract.

What these outlets have failed to note is that Odom, a player noted for the versatility and matchup problems he creates is asking for double of what the Lakers are paying Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic.  Vujacic is coming off a season where he shot 38.7% from the field.  In postseason he shot an absolutely horrific 26.4%, capping it off with an NBA Finals series where he failed to make a field goal or score a point.

Luke Walton this past season averaged 5.0 points, 2.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game.  In the finals, Walton averaged a paltry 3.8 points, 2.0 rebounds and 1.0 assists per game.  For this Vujacic will make $5.0 million this year and $5.48 million next year.  Walton will receive $4.8 million this year and $5.26 million next year.

Many coaches, including Western Conference finalist Denver Nuggets head coach George Karl, believe that Odom’s versatility is one of the keys to what makes the Lakers such a difficult matchup and helped them in their finals run.  Odom is asking for $10 million a year over 5 years, whereas the Lakers want to give him a 4-year, $36 million contract.

I can understand the Lakers being cautious about the length with Odom turning 30, but his value to the Lakers is certainly worth the $10 million they are currenly ponying up for Vujacic and Walton.  Simply put , the Lakers’ poor investment in rotation players may cost them a key cog to a championship winning squads.

With the current financial situation, championship teams are paying for missteps in free agency.  Now more than ever GM’s are being forced to be savvy not in simply putting a team together, but in their ability to guage a player’s value and sign them to a contract accordingly.  NBA GM’s are now being forced to pay for previous transgressions in spending their valuable cap space.

Certainly the Knicks have been the primary example over the past decade, but the league is littered with teams that are attempting to recover from poor personnel decisions.  The Bucks have been stuck in perpetual status a late lottery team in past years due to poor decisions, such as signing Bobby Simmons and trading for Richard Jefferson.

The Clippers have payed for expensive extensions for Chris Kaman, signing Baron Davis in free agency and failing to keep their own free agent Elton Brand.  In a cutthroat economy with teams looking to turn into winners and free agents looking to cash in on their own personal success, having a GM able to balance financial decisions with personnel choices is becoming increasingly critical.

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Refuse To Lose? It’s Not As Easy As That

Charley Rosen is one of the best writers that currently follows the NBA.  Rosen has extensive knowledge of the game, coaching in the C BA as a head coach.  Rosen also learned much of what he knows from current Lakers and former Bulls coach Phil Jackson, serving under him as an assistant in the CBA from 1983-1986.  Therefore it was surprising for me to see one of the best and one of my personal favorites fall into the trap of making mass media-like generalities.

Rosen, in an article outlining the championship contenders for next season, makes several outlandish statements.  He begins by analyzing the Lakers’ chances of repeating by claiming that Bryant’s position as the greatest player on the planet is beyond question.  I think that is very much in question by simply looking at the numbers and the talent surrounding him and the player Rosen is comparing him too, Lebron James.

Bryant is great.  There is no questioning his talent and his ability to take over games, but to call him the best player on the planet at this point is foolish.  Bryant’s best years are behind him and by no metric is he a better player than James and you could argue Dwayne Wade is better than him as well.  James averaged 28.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7.2 assists to Bryant’s 26.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists.

If we go into the advanced statistics side of basketball, James’ status as the best player becomes even more clear.  James posted a WARP of 26.9, whereas Bryant posted a mark of 14.5 according to basketballprospectus.com.  WARP measures how many more wins a player was worth to their team over a replacement level player at that position.  James’ team would go from 66 wins and the overall number one seed into a tie with Detroit for the 8 seed in the Eastern Conference with 39 wins.  Bryant’s team, while no longer a championship contender would be a 50 win team in the Western Conference with a good chance of advancing at least until the second round.

I could continue with much more that bears out the signicant difference between the two, but let’s use ESPN’s John Hollinger’s player efficiency rating.  James finished with a PER of 31.76, while Bryant posted a PER of 24.46.

According to 82games.com, using Hollinger’s methods, during the times when Bryant projecting Bryant’s numbers at shooting guard over 48 minutes, his PER is 26.6 and he would score 35.0 points, 7.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists with a 26.9 PER. When James’ numbers over 48 minutes at his natural position, small forward, project to 34.6. points, 9.1 rebounds and 9.6 assists with a PER of 34.7.

Looking at these numbers, the overwhelming amount of evidence points to James being the superior player.  However Rosen’s inability to evaluate the numbers correctly, or at all, lead him to a foolish conclusion.  Rosen however does not end his stream of foolish statements here.

Later in the Lakers’ team capsule he feels that if Adam Morrison’s leg heals he will be able to drive to the hoop effectively.  Morrison was horrendous during a healthy rookie year and his inability to produce offensively even when given time in Charlotte led them to trade him.  Also Morrison plays small forward, a position where the Lakers certainly have enough depth with Ron Artest, Luke Walton and if necessary Lamar Odom.

His statements about James later in the article in comparison to Bryant are a case of revisionist history.  He claims that Bryant, like Jordan, Magic and Bird simply refuse to lose in deciding playoff games.  Really?  So game 6 of the NBA Finals last year when the Lakers lost by 39 points was a perfect case in point of this?  Was Bryant the victim of none of his teammates showing up or was he also a culprit?  He scored 22 points on 7 of 22 shooting, not exactly a great performance.

What about Game 7 against the Suns in 2005 NBA Playoffs?  The Lakers blew a 3-1 lead in the series and with the season on the ropes Bryant attempted 3 shots in the second half, which the Lakers began 15 down.  Bryant had 23 points in the first half.

This is not an attempt to disparage Bryant, but a realistic view that even the greatest players come up short in the playoffs at times.  Magic committed a critical turnover at the end of Game 4 of the 1984 NBA Finals which the Celtics eventually won and acatapulted them to the title.  While MJ didn’t lose too many playoff series, His Airness certainly had his fair share of playoff duds as well like his fourth quarter in Game 4 of the 1997 NBA Finals where he committed a number of turnovers.

Rosen continues to sound like an angry old man as he continues to tirade about how James didn’t shake Orlando’s hands after the Game 6 loss.  I would care if Bill Simmons didn’t make a good point in his June 6 mailbag, why should he shake their hands?  It’s not as if the Lakers and Celtics were clinging to each other following deciding games in their three Finals series in the 80’s.

He also goes on to say that James’ antics, which include horrifics such as having fun with teammates and celebrating victories are a distraction and that Shaq should teach him how to behave.  What a crime it is to celebrate victories.  Shaq will also, according to Rosen, “teach” James how to be a “winner”.  I would like to see how that practice goes.  Shaq did an impressive job of teaching Kobe how to win before Phil Jackson got there and he did an equally impressive job in Phoenix of teaching the Suns how to “win”.

Let’s get real here.  Kobe Bryant wasn’t born with the ability to individually win a championship.  He can do a large part of carrying a team, but he didn’t win a championship without a top 5 power forward and the most talented roster in the NBA around him.  It’s a credit to Bryant he has learned how to harness his ego in order to win, but he is in a position where he simply does not have to carry the load every single night, every single moment.

James’ team around him ranges from above avaerage to good.  He has no stars around, nobody to carry the load when he isn’t shooting well, nobody he can defer too.  This was apparent throughout the series with the Magic, where Lebron posted three 40-point games along with leading his team in assists and rebounds for the series.

It’s not a matter of refusing to lose when you reach the levels of play that Bryant and James have achieved, something Rosen should understand after following the game for 40 years.  Unfortunately teams win championships, something even Jordan can attest too.  It is important to remmeber that Jordan always individually dominated, but his championships came after he learned to trust his teammates, leading to 6 championships, one courtesy of a Jordan kick out to John Paxson for a three in the 1993 NBA Finals against the Suns.

In the playoffs the difference becomes even greater.  Bryant posts an impressive 26.86 PER, but James records an otherworldly 37.43 PER.

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Knicks Have Leverage In Signing David Lee

Power forward David Lee is still looking for a new contract either from the Knicks or other teams that still have cap space available to use on the free agent market.  After averaging 16.0 points and 11.4 rebounds Lee is certainly looking to push to make around 9-10 million a year with his new contract.

Here’s a list compiled by ESPN Research of the eight players to enter free agency either restricted or unrestricted  after a season in which they averaged a double double:

• Emeka Okafor 2007-08: Six-year, $72 million contract with Charlotte as a restricted free agent.

• Carlos Boozer 2003-04: Six-year, $68 million deal with Jazz as a restricted free agent, with the Cavs not matching the offer and claiming Boozer reneged on a handshake agreement to stay in Cleveland.

• Erick Dampier 2003-04: Seven-year, $73 million contract with Dallas.

• Elton Brand 2002-03: Six-year, $82.2 million contract with the Clippers as a restricted free agent.

• Tim Duncan 2002-03: Seven-year, $122 million contract with San Antonio.

• Jermaine O’Neal 2002-03: Seven-year, $126.6 million contract with Indiana.

• Dikembe Mutombo 2000-01: Four-year, $65million contract with Philadelphia

• Chris Webber 2000-01: Seven-year, $122.7 million contract with Sacramento.

• Tim Duncan 1999-00: Four-year, $45.9 million contract with San Antonio.

What makes this list interesting is that Webber, Mutombo and Jermaine O’Neal were traded by the teams that signed them.  Duncan appears on this list twice and has certainly lived up to his contract and Brand at least put up great numbers and led the Clippers to the second round in the 2005-2006 NBA playoffs.

Dampier never has and never will live up to that contract and has been relegated to minimal playing time.  Boozer has played well but injuries have plagued him throughout the last couple of years and Utah is looking to move him in the final year of his contract now.

Double-doubles are no clear indication of how a player’s career will finish out, but Lee is a much different player from the the players on this list.  Lee is a great rebounder, able to box his man out and grab rebounds over players bigger than him due to his superior positioning.  He has developed into a good finisher around the hoop, particularly off the pick and roll.  Lee is also a very cerebal player and is a great outlet passer to initiate the fast break.

That last skill is what makes him important to the Knicks.  Outlet passing by the big men is a big component in what  makes D’Antoni’s high octane offense effective and leads to the quick shot opportunities.

However the Knicks aren’t in love with Lee and for the right price, say 10 million a year, would not match an offer.  The biggest reason is his inability to consistently knock down perimeter jump shots and his lack of range.  D’Antoni likes to spread the floor with 4 shooters on the floor at all times.

The Knicks appear ready in the event that Lee does leave, drafting Jordan Hill out of Arizona.  David Lee’s departure however would push the Knicks’ progress back, unless they sign and trade him which is looking like it could be an option.

Portland is one team rumored to be among Lee’s suitors.  Though there are rumors that they are looking more along the lines of a big man like Lamar Odom, if that does not work out the Blazers would still be in the market for Lee.

Unfortunately for them they only have $9 million in cap space and the Knicks could certainly choose to match an offer of that value if they chose.  A package of Rudy Fernandez, unhappy with Portland after they attempted to sign Hedo Turkoglu, and Joel Pryzbilla to the Knicks in a sign and trade for Lee could certainly be a possibility if things play out right.  This seems unlikely however as Pryzbilla has been one of the best back-up centers at the game and Portland would be left with no insurance behind Oden.

Either way however it’s not looking like Lee will be getting an offer of the magnitude he initially believed and he also would prefer to stay in New York, which puts the Knicks in great position.  With most teams looking to save money at least until next summer’s vaunted free agent class hits the market, the Knicks can likely retain him with a backloaded offer for around $34-36 million over four years.

GM Donnie Walsh has done a great job of navigating the market for a player many thought could command a number of offers early on free agency.  For the first time in a long time the Knicks are working from a position of leverage they can use to their advantage.

If Walsh gets him for that price, the he will have enough money to offer up a max contract to a player next summer, the Knicks’ ultimate plan.  Anything above that price however and the Knicks may look to sign and trade Lee.  Walsh cannot let him walk and at this point it looks as if most teams interested in Lee’s services have noted that with no offers as of yet on the table.

Expect answers to this and other free agent questions as the picture begins to clear tomorrow, July 8, the first day free agents can sign contracts.

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