As the beginning of the 2008-2009 NBA season nears, it is time to preview every team’s season. While a few teams have their eyes on the ultimate prize, an NBA championship, others look to build upon their success from last year, qualify for the playoffs, or simply win more games. We’ll start by taking a look at the Atlantic Division, where the Celtics seem poised to dominate while the other four teams look likely to battle for one of the lower playoff seeds in the Eastern Conference.
1. Boston Celtics: With Kevin Garnett back from a season-ending knee injury and the addition of Rasheed Wallace to bolster their frontline depth, the Celtics motto for the year is simply championship or bust. With their Big Three of Pierce, Garnett and Allen leading the way the Celtics should easily clinch the division and will have one of the Eastern Conference’s top three seeds.
The development of Rajon Rondo is critical to this team’s success. As their superstar trio continues to age and the games they have play take a toll on their body, it will be up to Rondo to be more than simply a facilitator. Rondo must build upon the success he had in the playoffs last year and be able to carry the load at times offensively for this team.
Rajon Rondo must maintain his playoff performance for an entire season in order for the Celtics to win another championship.
Boston will also need bigger contributions from their bench particularly Glen ” Big Baby” Davis and offseason addition, Marquis Daniels. Davis, much like Rondo, must carry his impressive playoff form into this season to provide the depth they need in the frontcourt and help minimize the amount of time that Garnett spends on the floor. His ability hit jumpers will also be key in helping floor spacing and opening up the middle of the floor. Daniels will be expected to provide more scoring punch off the bench to spell both Pierce and Allen and along with Davis will be key to the Celtics’ playoff success.
Rasheed Wallace brings a valuable addition to the Celtics. Though his game is clearly in decline now at age 34, Wallace has a versatile offensive game, with the ability to stretch the floor and also score effectively out of the post. He is also an extremely good defender, both on the perimeter, but more notably in the post. While he cannot carry a team offensively anymore, which was apparent in Detroit last season, he can certainly chip in valuable contributions either off the bench or in tandem with Garnett in the starting lineup.
With an aging,veteran core, this season may be the best chance the Celtics have of reclaiming the title. Head coach Doc Rivers’ ability to manage his veterans minutes in the regular season, development of his younger players like Davis, Rondo and Kendrick Perkins, all while being able to work Wallace and Daniels into the rotation successfully will determine the Celtics’ playoff success.
2. Philadelphia 76ers: This team continues to have a number of talented players, without truly being able to address any of the problems that plague them. Last year’s team looked doomed to failure after their acquisition of Elton Brand. They couldn’t operate in the halfcourt effectively with Brand, with their lack of shooters to provide any kind of floor spacing and while the rest of the team could run the floor, Brand languished behind, being more suited to a slower game.
It looked a poor fit and a decision that was questioned by many. Without Brand, the team performed much better and in the playoffs extended the eventual Eastern Conference champion Orlando Magic to six games before bowing out. This led to people questioning what they should do in the offseason. The Sixers responded by attempting to solve their shooting problems, but signing long-gunner Jason Kapono, a career 45.4% shooter from 3-point range.
While this certainly provides some relief, the loss of point guard Andre Miller is another setback. The plan is to start Louis Williams at the spot early in the season. Williams is a great scoring guard off the bench, but his ability to run the point and get the ball to Brand and Iguodala and generating scoring opportunities for the team remains a huge question mark.
Elton Brand's low-post game is a poor fit with the rest of the 76ers roster which is better suited to an up and down game.
Iguodala remains the same player putting up an impressive 18-5-5 last year. Unfortunately his game seems like a poor-fit alongside a low-post player like Brand. Iguodala needs the ball in his hands to be effective and lacks the ability to move off the ball for easy layups, while his inability to shoot the ball from anywhere outside of the paint means that teams can afford to leave him and double Brand in the post.
Both Thaddeus Young and Mareese Speights seem destined to be coming off the bench in relief for Brand and Dalembert though their talents seem a better fit with the rest of the Sixers’ roster. Their development will continue to be hindered in a situation where they are not being utilized to their maximum potential. Rookie Jrue Holiday has all the tools to develop into a top-flight NBA point guard, but he may take a year or two to develop into the caliber of player the Sixers are hoping for.
While the Sixers should once again clinch a playoff berth, their long-term success looks to be stunted by the team’s composition. They now face the decision of either changing the team to fit around Brand, which looks unlikely considering the rest of the team’s talents, or looking for a trade partner to take on his contract. Players with the ability of Brand can certainly be attractive to teams looking to contend immediately, but the Sixers must acquire pieces in return that will fit into an up-tempo running game, address their shooting woes and can elevate the team to the upper echelon of title contention.
3. Toronto Raptors: This team spent a lot of money in the offseason which should lead them to the playoffs this year, but may not be of great benefit in the long-run.
Turkoglu signed a contract with the Raptors in the offseason for 5 years, $53 million. The questions is whether Hedo was worth the long-term incestment the Raptors put into him. He will blend in seamlessly into the Raptors free-flowing offense and he provides matchup problems with his size and ability to pass and score off of pick and roll situations. Hedo and Chrish Bosh’s potential in that area of the game remains limitless as both players can score inside and have the touch to hit jumpers.
Andrea Bargnani's continued development will be necessary for the Raptors to become an elite team.
Bosh will continue his excellence and should average a double-double again this year. His areas for improvement must be his interior defense and it is imperative that Bosh become a better passer with more offensive options surrounding him this season. Jose Calderon will once again run the point this year and if he continues the production he has put up over the course of the past two season, he will remain among the league’s best.
The Raptors helped out Calderon in the offseason, by signing Jarret Jack to back him up. Jack will give Calderon much needed relief and his steady play gives them a valuable option off the bench and he is an underrated player in end-of-game situations with his propensity for making big shots. Marco Belinelli was a steal for the Raptors and his otherworldy outside shooting ability will certainly make him a valuable cog in the rotation.
The biggest question mark for the team and player that could elevate them to an elite status is Andrea Bargnani. He showed signs last year of becoming a legitimate scorer. Bargnani averaged 19.4 points and 1.6 blocks over his last 20 games of the season. If he can continue that play and also become nastier rebounder, paired with Bosh they could develop into one of the NBA’s most feared frontcourts.
Though the signing of Turkoglu and Jack helps them going into the season, questions remain around if Bosh will remain in Toronto and even if he does, will Turkoglu be able to sustain his play as he ages into his early-to-mid thirties.
4. New York Knicks: Does my love for the Knicks cloud my ability to judge them? Yes, but in all honesty I believe this team has players with enormous potential that is getting overlooked by analysts and writers who would prefer to continue to use the team as a punchline.
In the Knicks' uptempo system, Danilo Gallinari's unique talents could be maximized to great effect.
First and foremost is Danilo Gallinari who coach Mike D’Antoni claimed was the best shooter he had ever seen. While this is certainly an exaggeration, Gallinari has a high skill-level that translates well to the running game the Knicks will be playing. He is a 6′10 forward who can handle the ball, shoot and has shown an increasing ability to pass the ball. He must continue to get into game shape and get his legs underneath him. Once that happens Gallinari could easily put up 18-20 points a game this year. The key to his success lies in allowing the game to come to him, rather than forcing shots or deferring to teammates when he should shoot.
Wilson Chandler also provides another hope for the team and could provide an excellent complement to Gallinari. Chandler must first realize that while it is important for him to improve his outside shooting, that his greatest strength offensively is his ability to drive strong to the hoop. Chandler will be able to draw fouls and get to the line, where he is a good shooter. This will eventually force teams to lay off of him, giving him better looks from the outside, rather than the contested and forced shots he is taking right now.
While Chris Duhon is certainly not the long-term solution at point guard, he provides steady play and leadership. The key is for D’Antoni to also provide time for Nate Robinson and rookie Toney Douglas at the guard positions. Robinson and Douglas would be a good tandem off the bench, with Douglas’ ability to play the point on offense and defend effectively against bigger shooting guards on defense. This will allow Nate to play off the ball, where he thrives offensively and also minimizes the defensive liability he is by matching him up against point guards.
David Lee has shown an ability to hit the occasional jumper now which he must continue to make more consistent, but his knack for rebounding and increased effort on the defensive end makes him a key part of the team’s frontcourt rotation.
Al Harrington can score in a number of ways, but must learn to do so in the context of the offense, rather than holding the ball and ruining the offensive flow that the Knicks’ system is predicated upon. His renewed focus on the defensive side of the ball and role as a leader on the team make him one of the most important pieces to any success the Knicks hope to have.
Both Jared Jeffries and Darko Milicic have the same role. They are athletic big men, that are in the game primarily for their defense. Milicic’s knack for blocking shots combined with his size, strength and ability to run the floor ensure he will see plenty of time on the floor while Jeffries’ defensive rotations will be helpful in getting the team to be respectful on the defensive side of the ball. Both players must be able to hit outside shots in order for the Knicks’ offense to operate at full efficiency this season.
This team has a lot of question marks, but their increased effort on the defensive side of the ball should lead to more wins and I full expect this team to contend for a playoff seed in the 6-8 area all season long.
5. New Jersey Nets: The Nets have a number of talented young players on the roster, but their success will be limited this season as progress should be based not on their record, but on the development of their youth.
Brook Lopez' emergance as the premiere young center in the NBA brightens New Jersey's long-term outlook.
Devin Harris is one of the league’s best young point guards and he has flourished following his move to New Jersey with head coach Lawrence Frank running the offense through him. His blistering speed is impossible to defend and when he gets into the lane it creates defensive nightmares for the opposing team. While Harris leaves much to desire in terms of his playmaking ability for others around him, he has become a top-5 NBA point guard capable of carrying his team on any given night.
Brook Lopez has had a great impact since he was drafted and his rapid development into the league best young center gives the Nets an extremely valuable commodity. With the lack of quality big men, Lopez’ rugged post game and imposing defense is an anchor for this team to build on for years to come.
Trading Vine Carter and Ryan Andersen, netted the Nets a potential long-term shooting guard in Courtney Lee. In his rookie season for Magic, Lee was routinely assigned to defend the opposition’s best perimeter player which he did to great success. As the season continued, Lee began to demonstrate an ability to score from the outside and also slashing to the hoop. If he continues improving, the Nets may have found a perfect backcourt mate to pair with Harris for years to come.
Second-year guard, Chris Douglas-Roberts has shown flashes of becoming a consistent contributor so far in training camp in preseason. Douglas-Roberts may be able to develop into a good scoring option off the bench for this team as the season progresses. Rookie Terrence Williams has a world of potential, but must continue to work on his game. He needs to develop a better handle and a more consistent outside shot. If he can maintain his focus Williams can become a two-way player who could be a nightmare on defense for opposing teams’ perimeter players.
This team certainly is not built to win now, but Lawrence Frank has made a habit of turning his club into overachievers. While the loss of Carter hurts it should be offset by the further development of their young players as the season progresses. The Nets will end up on the short end of the scoreboard more than not in 09-10, but they will be competitive and look to have a bright future.