After sitting on my couch all of Sunday and watching Week 2 NFL action, including the Jets victory over New England at the Meadowlands, something became apparent to me. NFL analysts and columnists are way too quick in evaluating individual players and teams outlooks for the season from week-to-week.
It is too early to assume Sanchez's success continues even after two impressive regular season starts.
During the second half of the Jets game, rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez was thoroughly impressive, making a number of critical throws into open zones in the New England defense. He also demonstrated his ability to make plays happen, when he nearly threw a touchdown pass to WR Chansi Stuckey in the corner of the endzone before replays showed that Stuckey failed to get both feet inbounds and the play was eventually overturned.
Throughout the second half and during postgame analysis many were quick to point to Sanchez’s impressive performance and the Jets’ ability to shut down the Patriots offense as an indication of the team’s chances to compete right now. Looking at SI.com’s Peter King’s power rankings he has the Jets ranked as the fourth best team in the league.
Not only is this an absolute exaggeration, but history shows that while rookie QB’s may have a few stunning performances and may even lead their team into the playoffs, very rarely does it amount to any championships. Last year two rookies, Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens and Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons, led their teams to the postseason.
Ryan lost a wild card game to the eventual NFC champion Arizona Cardinals, looking overwhelmed in the second half and Flacco after dismissing an inferior Miami Dolphins team in the wild card round, was thoroughly undone by the Super Bowl champion Steelers.
Both the Steelers and Cardinals had veteran quarterbacks whose experience has helped prepare them for such situations. Almost every young quarterback goes through a growing process before he can truly elevate his game to the point where he can carry his team at times. Very few are the Tom Brady’s and Kurt Warner’s who step in immediately (albeit after being able to observe the game from the bench for a time) and lead their team to Super Bowl glory.
So instead of being presented with the reality that as impressive as Sanchez was yesterday, the likelihood is that teams will catch on to his tendencies and habits through film study and will expose them as the season goes along. That isn’t to say Sanchez will never be successful, but that it will be a gradual process rather than an immediate one.
One of the reasons this tends to happen is the lack of perspective when viewing team and player performances. Sanchez was as I stated earlier extremely impressive and showed that he certainly has the talent and ability to be a top NFL signal caller in years to come, but the reality is he also played a Patriots defense that looks nothing like the Bill Belichick defenses we have become accustomed too throughout the Patriots decade of supremacy.
They are without their best linebacker, Jerod Mayo, and traded Richard Seymour, perhaps their best defensive lineman, last week to the Raiders for 2011 first round pick. They have also lost Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison to retirement and traded Mike Vrabel to the Kansas City Chiefs. Needless to say this defense will at best this year be a mediocre unit, susceptible to big plays, particularly in the passing game.
The Jets victory in Week 1 came over the Texans, who in Week 2 made the Titans offense look like the Super Bowl Rams “Greatest Show on Turf” with Chris Johnson assuming the role of Marshall Faulk. The Jets have a great chance of winning their division or getting one of the wild card berths if their defense can keep this up, but perspective is required before we label Sanchez as already being one of the top-NFL quarterbacks.
While the hyperbole for the Jets has been more restrained this year, perhaps in the wake of their incredible collapse at the end of last year, the same cannot be said for the reactions to the Baltimore Ravens after two weeks. Last night after watching Ray Lewis stop Darren Sproles and the Chargers on a critical fourth down late in the game, NFL analyst and ex-coach Steve Mariucci declared the Ravens as the team to beat in the AFC.
What? This coming off wins against two teams that play in what is one of the worst divisions in the NFL, the AFC west. The Ravens last week were trailing the pathetic Chiefs, 14-10 late in the third quarter before pulling away for a 38-24 victory. This week they barely escaped the Chargers, a team that finished 8-8 last year while sneaking into the playoffs. Granted the game was on the road and winning is all that matters, but their certainly is cause for some concern.
Baltimor's offense has looked impressive, but so far only against two of the NFL's worst defenses.
Foremost, the Ravens defense, while stout in the red zone, looked far from being an elite defensive unit. Philip Rivers threw for 436 yards yesterday and looked poised to lead another fourth quarter comeback before Lewis stuffed Darren Sproles’ run on fourth-and-two. I am inclined to the give the Ravens the benefit of the doubt, because of their prolonged defensive excellence, but I am less willing to do the same for the offense.
That sounds foolish after they gained 501 yards in Week 1 against the Chiefs and won a close game in San Diego yesterday, but a closer looks reveals that it is better to be cautious in evaluating the progress of their offense. Last year the chiefs ranked 31st out of 32 NFL teams in terms of yards allowed and 29th in points allowed. The Chargers ranked 25th in yards allowed and 16th in points allowed. Suffice it to say these are not two of the elite NFL defenses, perhaps not even middle of the pack.
So before we jump to the conclusion that the Ravens offense has finally turned the corner and can now be depended upon to win games on days when the defense is struggling, more proof is needed. There is no need at this point, merely two weeks into the season to rush to conclusion on players and teams. In fact, to do so is irresponsible and misleading.
In the NFL it is better served wait until at least a quarter of the way into the season before picking Super Bowl favorites and Pro Bowl quarterbacks. Many times it seems that analysts and writers get caught looking at the box score of a game, rather than searching for what those numbers truly mean. When it comes to early season prognostications it is better to cautious rather than changing opinions from week-to-week.