Archive for September, 2009
The Knicks’ Future Does Not Hinge On Lebron
Posted by Ashwin Ramnath in NBA on September 30th, 2009
I was in the car today listening to Michael Kay and Don La Greca on 1050 ESPN Radio in NY when they began discussing the Knicks’ plan of pursuing Lebron James in the summer of 2010. Both commentators stated that the Knicks putting all their chips on the table, and going all in for the Lebron Summer of 2010 sweepstakes was a flawed plan and that Knicks fans were the one suffering the consequences last year and will be this year as well.
Lebron isn't the only option available to the Knicks next summer.
Now I agree with both on a few of the statements they made. I agree that Lebron is more likely to stay in Cleveland than to come to New York. I also agree that the Knicks have mortgaged their immediate future in order to be a player in free agency during the summer of 2010.
That is the extent to any of the claims they made that I agree with. Let’s take a look at the fallacies behind their arguments.
1. Lebron will make more money in Cleveland than by coming to New York because the Cavaliers can offer a bigger contract.
This is true only on the surface. Cleveland has the advantage of being able to offer Lebron a sixth year on a contract, while the Knicks can only offer him a max contract over five years. Comparing the max contracts both teams could offer over the initial five years, Lebron would make a grand total of 4.14 million less if he came to the Knicks. When you’re making over $40 million a year including $28 million a year in endorsements I doubt that giving up a little less than $1 million a year over five years will matter much.
They also both went on to claim that since Lebron is already one of the most prominent athletes in the world, moving to New York would gain him little monetarily or in terms of recognition.
Coming to New York would certainly boost Lebron’s profile internationally to a level it is not at right now considering that his jersey sales in China rank No. 7. Lebron himself has stated he wants to become the first billionaire and certainly stands a better chance of accomplishing this is in New York with its large market and the exposure both nationally and internationally that it provides.
2. Lebron has a championship contender in Cleveland, something that the Knicks are far from being.
Once again on the surface there is nothing wrong with this statement. Last year the Cavaliers won 66 games and contended for an NBA Finals berth, while the Knicks went 32-50 and missed the playoffs for a fifth straight season.
Lebron's supporting cast in Cleveland is negligibly better than the Knicks' current roster.
Then again last year according to Basketball Prospectus Lebron was worth close to 27 wins to his team. Doing some simple math, that would mean that without Lebron James, the Cavaliers would have won 39 games last year. Even if you question the validity of advanced statistics, use some common sense and think to yourself how good Lebron’s supporting cast really is. It is slightly better than the Knicks’ roster, though they also lack some of the talented youth the Knicks have on their roster.
The Knicks are also in much better position to add talent immediately looking at their overall cap situation. It is true that with the salary cap slated to come down again next year the Knicks will most likely not be able to add another max contract player to their roster next summer. What many fail to realize is come around the summer of 2011 the Knicks will again have significant cap room with Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries both having their contracts expire after the 2010-2011 season.
The Knicks can even use both those expiring contracts to acquire another player to put next to Lebron before the trade deadline if they want. Simply put long term the Knicks cap situation looks better than the Cavaliers cap situation in the long-term.
3. If the Knicks fail to land Lebron, the entire plan for rebuilding will be a failure.
To expand on this, Kay even went on to claim that if the Knicks landed Miami superstar Dwayne Wade, it would have been a failed strategy. Even if I tried to ignore the stupidity of that statement Kay then decided to say that point guards can not lead a team to a championship.
Knicks fans would be more than happy if Dwayne Wade came to New York instead of Lebron.
Two things. Dwayne Wade is a shooting guard and last time I checked he did lead the Miami Heat to a championship in the 2006 NBA Finals where he was named Finals MVP.
Wade is on record saying that he can’t see himself in New York, but if he did come I doubt any Knicks fan would be devastated with that result.
Even if Lebron does not come, the Knicks would still have the cap space to sign say perhaps a combination of Joe Johnson and Amare Stoudemire, two player who have played and thrived under Mike D’Antoni in Phoenix. With those two players, the expected development of the Knicks’ young players and the ability to sign another big free agent in the summer of 2011, the Knicks’ future would look very promising.
Even if the Knicks fail to sign a significant free agent next summer they will be in a much better situation than they were under the reign of former GM’s Isiah Thomas and Scott Layden. While I do believe there are some things current GM Donnie Walsh could have done better in his time in New York, overall he has delivered on his promise to get the Knicks under the cap sooner rather than later.
Perhaps this is why they say you can’t rebuild in New York. The most significant part of the Knicks’ rebuilding plan is not to sign Lebron James, but that they even have the ability too after a decade of poor cap management. Both Kay and La Greca fail to grasp several keys to the Knicks’ entire plan.
I hate to pile on both, because I generally enjoy their commentary, but when it comes to understanding the Knicks’ plans and what they have to entice Lebron neither Kay or La Greca come close.
The Real Carson Palmer Returns
Posted by Ashwin Ramnath in NFL on September 29th, 2009
At the close of the third quarter yesterday, with the Bengals trailing the Steelers 20-9 things looked like they were finished. They had been unable to move the ball effectively all day and their lone touchdown came from a Roethlisberger interception returned by cornerback Jonathan Joseph for a touchdown.
Even in the stadium you could feel the fans reconciling themselves to another painful loss to their division rival as it has been for the most part over the course of this decade. The Steelers had won 6 consecutive games against the Bengals and had won 8 straight times in Cincinnati at Paul Brown Stadium.
Carson Palmer led the Bengals on a game-winning fourth quarter drive against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
In fact I was watching the game with a friend and we both remarked how Bengals quarterback, Carson Palmer, had not looked like the player he was during his breakout 2005 season where he led the Bengals to the playoffs for the first time in 15 years. Consequently it was against the Steelers in the playoffs that Palmer suffered his knee injury.
In 2006, Palmer passed for 4,000 yards and had a QB rating of 93.3, threw for over 4,000 yards with 28 touchdowns, but the team missed the playoffs again. 2007 he once again put up similar numbers, but the Bengals once again failed to make the playoffs. It was something not in the numbers however which was missing.
Palmer did not exude the confidence he had previously. The Bengals offense was not scoring as many touchdowns and the team seemed to lack a spark and confidence in critical situations.
This season, the Bengals are one miracle play form being 3-0 and tied with Baltimore at the top of the division, but it was not until the fourth quarter yesterday that the real Carson Palmer arrived back on the field.
The Bengals offense, led by Palmer, stepped out onto the field down 20-15 with 5:14 left in the fourth quarter, 71 yards away from the Steelers endzone. In need of a touchdown and facing one of the NFL’s top defenses I figured this game would end with the Steelers on top.
That was until I saw Palmer drop back on the second play of the drive and hit Laverneus Coles on a pass that hit him perfectly in stride with a Steeler defensive back right on him, that allowed him to turn up the field for a 17-yard gain. It was more than the pass, it was the power in the throw, the situation and the opposition that he was facing that made Palmer’s pass impressive.
The rest of the drive was simply a resurrection of the Palmer that was once considered the great young quarterback of his generation. Every time he dropped back, the offensive line was able to give him enough protection to plant his feet and throw the ball and Palmer fit the ball into tight windows, putting the ball in positions where only his receivers could catch the ball. The coverage on the plays was outstanding, but Palmer was on fire.
He had so much zip on his passes, that most were actually impossible to see while watching the game on TV. Palmer looked more like the player he was during that 2005 season, making throws only a handful of quarterbacks in the league can make and making them in critical situations for his team.
On Sunday we saw the real Carson Palmer and the rise of a Bengals team that with Palmer at his best can compete for a playoff berth.
Exercising Caution Early In the Season Is Best When Evaluating Players And Teams
Posted by Ashwin Ramnath in NFL on September 21st, 2009
After sitting on my couch all of Sunday and watching Week 2 NFL action, including the Jets victory over New England at the Meadowlands, something became apparent to me. NFL analysts and columnists are way too quick in evaluating individual players and teams outlooks for the season from week-to-week.
It is too early to assume Sanchez's success continues even after two impressive regular season starts.
During the second half of the Jets game, rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez was thoroughly impressive, making a number of critical throws into open zones in the New England defense. He also demonstrated his ability to make plays happen, when he nearly threw a touchdown pass to WR Chansi Stuckey in the corner of the endzone before replays showed that Stuckey failed to get both feet inbounds and the play was eventually overturned.
Throughout the second half and during postgame analysis many were quick to point to Sanchez’s impressive performance and the Jets’ ability to shut down the Patriots offense as an indication of the team’s chances to compete right now. Looking at SI.com’s Peter King’s power rankings he has the Jets ranked as the fourth best team in the league.
Not only is this an absolute exaggeration, but history shows that while rookie QB’s may have a few stunning performances and may even lead their team into the playoffs, very rarely does it amount to any championships. Last year two rookies, Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens and Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons, led their teams to the postseason.
Ryan lost a wild card game to the eventual NFC champion Arizona Cardinals, looking overwhelmed in the second half and Flacco after dismissing an inferior Miami Dolphins team in the wild card round, was thoroughly undone by the Super Bowl champion Steelers.
Both the Steelers and Cardinals had veteran quarterbacks whose experience has helped prepare them for such situations. Almost every young quarterback goes through a growing process before he can truly elevate his game to the point where he can carry his team at times. Very few are the Tom Brady’s and Kurt Warner’s who step in immediately (albeit after being able to observe the game from the bench for a time) and lead their team to Super Bowl glory.
So instead of being presented with the reality that as impressive as Sanchez was yesterday, the likelihood is that teams will catch on to his tendencies and habits through film study and will expose them as the season goes along. That isn’t to say Sanchez will never be successful, but that it will be a gradual process rather than an immediate one.
One of the reasons this tends to happen is the lack of perspective when viewing team and player performances. Sanchez was as I stated earlier extremely impressive and showed that he certainly has the talent and ability to be a top NFL signal caller in years to come, but the reality is he also played a Patriots defense that looks nothing like the Bill Belichick defenses we have become accustomed too throughout the Patriots decade of supremacy.
They are without their best linebacker, Jerod Mayo, and traded Richard Seymour, perhaps their best defensive lineman, last week to the Raiders for 2011 first round pick. They have also lost Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison to retirement and traded Mike Vrabel to the Kansas City Chiefs. Needless to say this defense will at best this year be a mediocre unit, susceptible to big plays, particularly in the passing game.
The Jets victory in Week 1 came over the Texans, who in Week 2 made the Titans offense look like the Super Bowl Rams “Greatest Show on Turf” with Chris Johnson assuming the role of Marshall Faulk. The Jets have a great chance of winning their division or getting one of the wild card berths if their defense can keep this up, but perspective is required before we label Sanchez as already being one of the top-NFL quarterbacks.
While the hyperbole for the Jets has been more restrained this year, perhaps in the wake of their incredible collapse at the end of last year, the same cannot be said for the reactions to the Baltimore Ravens after two weeks. Last night after watching Ray Lewis stop Darren Sproles and the Chargers on a critical fourth down late in the game, NFL analyst and ex-coach Steve Mariucci declared the Ravens as the team to beat in the AFC.
What? This coming off wins against two teams that play in what is one of the worst divisions in the NFL, the AFC west. The Ravens last week were trailing the pathetic Chiefs, 14-10 late in the third quarter before pulling away for a 38-24 victory. This week they barely escaped the Chargers, a team that finished 8-8 last year while sneaking into the playoffs. Granted the game was on the road and winning is all that matters, but their certainly is cause for some concern.
Baltimor's offense has looked impressive, but so far only against two of the NFL's worst defenses.
Foremost, the Ravens defense, while stout in the red zone, looked far from being an elite defensive unit. Philip Rivers threw for 436 yards yesterday and looked poised to lead another fourth quarter comeback before Lewis stuffed Darren Sproles’ run on fourth-and-two. I am inclined to the give the Ravens the benefit of the doubt, because of their prolonged defensive excellence, but I am less willing to do the same for the offense.
That sounds foolish after they gained 501 yards in Week 1 against the Chiefs and won a close game in San Diego yesterday, but a closer looks reveals that it is better to be cautious in evaluating the progress of their offense. Last year the chiefs ranked 31st out of 32 NFL teams in terms of yards allowed and 29th in points allowed. The Chargers ranked 25th in yards allowed and 16th in points allowed. Suffice it to say these are not two of the elite NFL defenses, perhaps not even middle of the pack.
So before we jump to the conclusion that the Ravens offense has finally turned the corner and can now be depended upon to win games on days when the defense is struggling, more proof is needed. There is no need at this point, merely two weeks into the season to rush to conclusion on players and teams. In fact, to do so is irresponsible and misleading.
In the NFL it is better served wait until at least a quarter of the way into the season before picking Super Bowl favorites and Pro Bowl quarterbacks. Many times it seems that analysts and writers get caught looking at the box score of a game, rather than searching for what those numbers truly mean. When it comes to early season prognostications it is better to cautious rather than changing opinions from week-to-week.
Media Gives Goodell, NFL Owners Pass on Collusion Allegations
Posted by Ashwin Ramnath in NFL on September 17th, 2009
Reports have confirmed by the NFLPA that the U.S. Department of Labor is investigating allegations of racketeering and other illegal activities by the union. The lawsuit alleges that some top NFLPA representatives, certain NFL owners and commissioner Roger Goodell met in advance of negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement. It further alleges that the NFLPA representatives gave the commissioner and owners access to information critical to the negotiations at this meeting.
The U.S. Department of Labor is investigating racketeering allegations against commissioner Goodell, NFL owners and players reps.
The informant for the Department of Labor was the NFL’s director of human resources Mary Moran, who named former NFLPA President Troy Vincent and Texans’ owner Bob McNair as two of the individuals present at the meeting.
Moran, who is Jewish, alleges further that Vincent called her a “Jezebel” repeatedly, a derogatory term for Jewish women. She also claims that after exposing Vincent she received death threats. Moran is filing the lawsuit, after she claims that she was wrongfully removed from her job as the director of human resources.
The most significant thing is what this lawsuit alleges in terms of collusion and what that actually means for the NFL. The fact that Goodell, the NFL’s commissioner, is being named as being present in the meeting Moran references in the lawsuit is a startling development. It would mean that he has taken an active part in colluding against players with the aid of owners and certain NFLPA representatives in advance of collective bargaining agreement talks.
Even more damning is the allegation against NFLPA executive director DeMaurice Smith. Moran states that Smith met with a Department of Justice official in a bid to stop the investigation in April. This came only a few weeks after Moran began cooperating with the investigation.
What makes this story such a surprise is how the media has focused no time at all on this story. No ESPN investigative reports, no columns denouncing the perpetrators of such an act, no talking heads discussing if these allegations are true what actions should be taken against Goodell and the others involved.
The question is simple. How can this not be a major story? We have a commissioner who rode in on his high horse two years ago, with the sole purpose of cleaning up the image of the league, now accused of colluding against the players association. We have owners of NFL teams being accused of being present at the meeting and we even have NFLPA representatives stabbing their own in the back to provide information to Goodell and the owners in a bid to gain more support when NFLPA officials are selected.
This has all the makings of a story ready to be busted wide open, but the sports media would rather point our attention away from anything that could detract from image of both the NFL and commissioner Goodell. So instead we are bombarded with stories about Tom Brady’s knee and Brett Favre’s comeback. These stories pump the NFL up, create intrigue and generate ratings and ticket sales, the opposite of what reporting a federal probe into collusion allegations against commissioner Goodell, owners and NFL players reps would do.
This is what this story actually means. In a league where a player can have his contract voided and cut at any time by his team, the league’s top officials attempted to collude with NFLPA reps in advance of negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement. These allegations essentially point to an attempt to give even more power to the NFL and its owners while the players continue to give up any remaining leverage they have.
Sounds like a story that should be reported, but expect ESPN and the rest of the major sports media to continue to give Goodell and the owners a pass while they continue to get record ratings from the NFL.
Archaic NCAA Rules Create Scandals
Posted by Ashwin Ramnath in College Basketball, College Football on September 1st, 2009
The latest NCAA “scandal” involves the University of Michigan’s college football program. In reports stemming from interviews with current and former players in the program, the Detroit Free Press has written that the Michigan Wolverines’ football program is guilty of breaking NCAA rules that stipulate a player should spend no more than 20 hours every week on mandatory football practices and activities.
Any college football writer or analyst, who believes players at major Division I programs spend no more than the NCAA mandated 20 hours per week average should re-evaluate their chosen career. Let’s assume Michigan head coach, Rich Rodriguez is lying and the Wolverines’ football players are spending more than 20 hours a week. The culprit in this latest NCAA rules transgression is none other than the NCAA governing body.
The rules which govern college sports programs are archaic and unrealistic. These rules and regulations that have been in place controlling the actions of players and programs in football and other major sports belong in a past era and have no grip on the current environment in major college sports.
When millions of dollars in donations from universities, donors and boosters are being pumped into major sports programs, results are expected. Results have lead to far more pressure, which has led to programs searching for ways to circumvent the rules in an attempt to reach expectations.
NCAA football, meanwhile continues to suffer from the belief that 20 hours is sufficient time in a week for players to know their game plan, implement it in practice, study game film of themselves and their opponent, do conditioning work and lift weights. Back in the 1940’s twenty hours was enough, but the extent to which the game has developed at present it is absolutely absurd to expect players and coaches to be able to follow this rule.
The unreal expectations with which college sports are governed is certainly not strictly limited to football.
Does anyone really think it was a crime for O.J. Mayo to take some money from a sports agent when he was busy reviving a USC basketball program, helping them fill the stands?
Are we going to forget that Memphis reached the Final Four with Derrick Rose leading the team and that they won 38 games or are we too devastated by the knowledge Rose may have had somebody take the SAT for him to get a qualifying score?
NCAA basketball has become an absolute joke with the NBA forcing players to attend school for one year before they become eligible for the draft. It has created scenarios where players such as O.J. Mayo, Derrick Rose and others who grew up expecting and preparing to enter the NBA after high school had to change plans for a year and attend a university, because of a rule that was forced upon them.
These are just a few instances which show that though college sports are now a major business, they are still governed like local youth recreational leagues. What really needs to be examined and re-evaluated here are these ridiculous rules and regulations that nearly every program needs to violate in order to be able to compete.
Meanwhile any real story of substance that should cause a national uproar such as the case involving Daniel Hood, receives little national press. If you aren’t familiar with the story, Hood is a tight end who has received a football scholarship to the University of Tennessee, though he was tried as a juvenile at the age of 13 and found delinquent in a case where he stood watch as a 17 year-old friend, raped his 14 year-old first cousin.
There are a number of issues with college sports that I could delve into, but they all stem from the same problem; the NCAA’s inability to adjust to the times and change their rules and regulations accordingly. Instead we are stuck now with college sports scandals that create no sense of controversy among the general public in the current college sports environment.